Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and caused turmoil, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the political, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or activists want to engage with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author endorses unity or the current situation. They authors two pieces that aim for neutrality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over national emblems, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," said the writer. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens report they favour unity but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless official who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified arguments, he stated. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will in the end not succeed but both parties has has important lessons to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
